Marcus Tavernier Isn't Just Finishing Better. He's Finding Better Shots.

Marcus Tavernier's early-season scoring numbers invite an obvious explanation: he's simply finishing better. The shot maps suggest something more interesting. Bournemouth's winger is getting a greater share of his chances from areas where goals are more likely.

The change in shot selection

Across the 2025/26 Premier League season, Tavernier took 70 shots and scored seven goals. Of those attempts, 44.3% came from inside the penalty area. His expected goals per shot (xG/shot) was 0.129.

In the early 2026/27 snapshot reviewed by TAC on October 26, he had taken 17 shots, scored five goals and attempted 64.7% of his shots from inside the box. His xG per shot climbed to 0.212.

That is roughly a 64% increase in average chance quality. The distinction matters: xG per shot measures the likelihood of scoring from an average attempt, based on the characteristics of that chance. It does not guarantee the next shot will go in.

Efficiency is not the whole story

His conversion rate also jumped, from 10.0% (seven goals from 70 attempts) to 29.4% (five from 17). That is a dramatic change, but the second figure rests on only 17 shots. A few misses could move it substantially.

The more useful signal is where the shots are coming from. A shift toward the box, alongside higher xG per attempt, suggests Tavernier has been finding or choosing better shooting opportunities. It could reflect his movement, Bournemouth's attacking patterns, the quality of service or the opponents faced. Shot maps alone cannot tell us which explanation dominates.

What we should not conclude

Seventy shots across an entire season and 17 in an early-season sample are not comparable measures of shooting frequency. Without minutes played and shots per 90, we cannot say Tavernier is shooting less often. We can say that, in the available samples, a larger proportion of his shots came from the box and those shots carried more expected value.

Likewise, five goals from 17 shots does not establish that a near-30% conversion rate is his new normal. Finishing efficiency tends to fluctuate, particularly in small samples.

The Cherry on Top

Tavernier's improvement is not just a hot streak on the scoresheet. The location and quality of his attempts have changed in ways that make the scoring run more understandable.

For Bournemouth, that is encouraging. A player consistently arriving in better shooting positions may remain dangerous even after an exceptional finishing rate cools. The next question is whether this shot profile holds across a larger stretch of the season.

Explore Tavernier's comparison charts in the TAC Data Room →